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Trade and Catalyst Pick: $KERX My short term target opinion, $9.05

Scott Matusow1 Comment

Trade and Catalyst Pick: $KERX My short term trade target opinion, $9.05, Catalyst run-up target, $9.50 - $10

KERX has a Phase II Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) data release in the 3Q.

Commenting on the quarter, Ron Bentsur, the Company's Chief Executive Officer, said,

Following the announcement of top-line data, we are now focusing our efforts and resources toward the pending NDA and MAA submissions.  We are also progressing with the U.S. Phase 2 CKD study, for which we expect to report top-line data in the third quarter of 2013.

Additional information: http://investors.keryx.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=122201&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1752895

More to come for sure!

I'm long $KERX

Scott

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One thought on “Trade and Catalyst Pick: $KERX My short term target opinion, $9.05”

  1. The Phase II should be positive given that the long-term Japanese Phase III in pre-dialysis has been completed and JT Torii thought enough of it to apply for the indication in Japan. Unlike Europe, no phosphate binders are approved in pre-dialysis in Japan, just as no phosphate binders are approved for the indication in the U.S. A regulatory monopoly is a beautiful thing, and it is not close to being priced in. The Japanese data – also potentially a Q3 event – should be the most important catalyst before ASN in my opinion. It will give a good idea of the potential homeostasis of iron stores in CKD patients and do so in detail.

    The iron deficiency anemia opportunity does not appear to be priced in with respect to the other indications – such as GI, gynecological, and cardio-vascular. BTW, given that no oral medicine has been shown to treat iron deficiency anemia, these data will effectively destroy any remaining IP questions that the shorts raised. Method of use patent for such a high unmet medical need should be inviolable and extend to at least 2030.

    With respect just to ESRD, the pharmacoeconomic savings to dialysis providers in the US could drive DVA earnings up 25% – all other things being equal – if Zerenex were given to all patients. That is unlikely to happen, but it gives an idea of the dynamic at work and why KERX would be an excellent buyout candidate.

    Good luck.

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